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Session Prep

Two minutes tonight. A plan tomorrow.
Evening edition · Data as of Tue, Oct 13, 5:00 PM EDT · All times Eastern
Deep research

Tonight's one thing

CPI lands before the cash open with Nasdaq stuck below last week's floor, S&P boxed in tight, gold fading a failed breakout and crude pressing its highs.

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Tomorrow's market movers · Wednesday, October 14

Time ETImpactEventForecastPrevious
8:30 AMHighCore CPI m/m0.2%0.3%
8:30 AMHighCore CPI y/y2.5%2.4%
8:30 AMHighCPI m/m0.6%0.4%
8:30 AMHighCPI y/y3.6%3.4%

U.S. releases, high and medium impact.

NQ / MNQE-mini / Micro E-mini Nasdaq-100Weekly thesis · STRESSED

The Lines in the Sand

30,905.5Session high the bounce never reclaimed; the bears' last wall
30,792Last week's floor, now a ceiling the bears are defending
30,591.25Today's flush low; lose it and the floor is gone

The Trap

After a hard flush, the hourly chart goes quiet and late shorts get comfortable just as a CPI headline can squeeze them back toward 30905.5. On the other side, bulls reading the green heavyweights as a floor have watched price stay pinned under 30792 anyway.

Last price30,781.25
ADR · 30 sessions441.03 pts
Daily EMA2130,726.08HOLD
Reopen gapNo opening gap
30,60030,80031,00031,20031,40031,600close 16:00Wed 9:30close 16:00Thu 9:30close 16:00Fri 9:30close 16:00Mon 9:30close 16:00Tue 9:30close 16:00Prior week high · 31,616.5Prior week low · 30,792H1 · EMA21 · NQ / MNQ 30,781.25Yellow: 09:30 open · dashed gray: 16:00 close (ET)

The Read

Bears took last week's floor at 30792, and the week closed under it at 30781.25. Bulls fought back hard off the 30591.25 flush, but the bounce died well short of 30905.5 and the day still closed red. The counter-argument is real: most Nasdaq heavyweights closed higher, and morning CPI can spark a relief rip. Below 30815 the trap door to 30690.5 and 30591.25 stays open; hourly closes back above 30905.5 put the bears offside.

Yesterday's daily candle · Tue, Oct 13
Open30,877.5High30,905.5Low30,591.25Close30,781.25
bearish · range 314.25 pts
Projected range · next session285 pts30,570 – 30,855

Index drivers

TickerApprox. weightDay moveNext earningsTop headline
NVDA8.4%+0.97%—3 Absurdly Cheap Stocks to Buy Before the End of 2026
MSFT5.75%+0.43%—Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Holds Up As Meta, AMD Lead Buys; ASML, CPI Inflation Due
AAPL7.28%+0.09%—Judge orders OpenAI to turn over hiring records in Apple trade secrets case
AMZN4.04%−0.37%—Are consumer budgets in for a fright this Halloween season?
META3.26%+2.63%—Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Holds Up As Meta, AMD Lead Buys; ASML, CPI Inflation Due
AVGO2.47%+0.73%—Chips' Sixth Straight Loss Drags Nasdaq Into the Red
GOOGL3%+0.3%Oct 27 · After closeDisney strikes $20-million deal for Character.ai's assets as AI startup files for bankruptcy
TSLA2.81%−0.74%Oct 20 · After closeRivian spinoff Mind Robotics hires ex-Ford EV chief Doug Field

Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Broadcom and Alphabet all closed higher, with Meta the standout and one headline noting a fresh all-time high for Apple. Amazon and Tesla closed lower. Tesla reports earnings on October 20 after the close and Alphabet on October 27 after the close.

Market data as of Oct 13, 6:33 PM EDT · Weights as of 2026-09-30

Evidence · 9 cited findings

Price action · weekly / daily / H1

  • Weekly price accepted below the prior-week low at 30792 and closed at 30781.25, 363.25 points below the 31144.5 weekly open; that acceptance owns the bearish direction.
  • The daily candle recovered from 30591.25 but still closed bearish at 30781.25; it held 55.17 points above the 30726.08 daily EMA21 while failing to recover 30905.5.
  • H1 stabilized around its EMA21 after the selloff, creating bounce risk, but failure below 30815 leaves 30690.5 and 30591.25 exposed; sustained closes above 30905.5 invalidate the immediate bearish scenario.

Metrics

  • The completed daily range was 314.25 points, 71.3% of the 441.03-point ADR, leaving room for another directional session without requiring an exceptional range.
  • Daily volume was 1.497 times its 30-session average, strengthening the significance of the bearish close and failed recovery.
  • The last H1 range was only 43.5 points versus a 105-point expansion threshold, so compression precedes the projected 09:00-11:00 ET next session.

Sentiment & current events

  • September CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for 08:30 ET on October 14, making the bearish path vulnerable to a relief reaction; the official schedule is verified, while consensus and reaction thresholds remain nonofficial forecasts: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm
  • Large QQQ drivers were mixed-to-positive after the close: NVDA gained 0.9721%, MSFT 0.425%, AAPL 0.088%, META 2.63% and AVGO 0.7273%, while AMZN lost 0.366% and TSLA lost 0.7407%; this breadth is the strongest contradiction to the bearish futures structure: https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/about.html
  • Unresolved Iran-US negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz preserve cross-asset headline risk but do not independently establish the next MNQ direction: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-strait-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-conditions-are-met-2026-10-04
Sources & evidence dates · 29
  1. BLS confirms September 2026 CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 08:30 ET; September PPI is scheduled for October 15 at 08:30 ET and Import/Export Prices for October 16 at 08:30 ET.2026-02-18
  2. Multiple current previews report expectations near +0.6% m/m and +3.6% y/y for headline CPI and +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y for core CPI. These are forecasts, not official BLS figures; other forecast sources show modestly different consensus estimates.2026-10-13
  3. bls.gov2026-02-18
  4. The Federal Reserve calendar confirms Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman appearances at 05:40 ET and 22:55 ET on October 14, the Beige Book at 14:00 ET on October 14, and Chairman Kevin Warsh's IMF conversation at 23:30 ET on October 15.2025-06-24
  5. reuters.com2026-10-04
  6. reuters.com2026-10-06
  7. cmegroup.com
  8. riotimesonline.com2026-10-13
  9. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:35:01.000Z
  10. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:25:00.000Z
  11. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:10:35.000Z
  12. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:49:28.000Z
  13. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:00:57.000Z
  14. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:36:44.000Z
  15. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:24:24.000Z
  16. Yahoo2026-10-13T19:50:32.000Z
  17. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:52:32.000Z
  18. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:35:06.000Z
  19. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:12:19.000Z
  20. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:03:10.000Z
  21. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:45:03.000Z
  22. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:03:45.000Z
  23. Yahoo2026-10-13T19:00:11.000Z
  24. Yahoo2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z
  25. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:34:51.000Z
  26. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:14:00.000Z
  27. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:37:02.000Z
  28. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:33:00.000Z
  29. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:30:27.000Z
ES / MESE-mini / Micro E-mini S&P 500Weekly thesis · STRESSED

The Lines in the Sand

7,864Top of the box; bulls need acceptance above it
7,834.25Floor of the box; lose it and 7815-7800 opens
7,887Week's high, the next shelf if the box breaks up

The Trap

Tight boxes bait breakout chasers, and the first poke through 7864 or under 7834.25 can snap right back inside before the real move shows. With a CPI print due, both sides can get shaken out in the same hour.

Last price7,855.5
ADR · 30 sessions74.3 pts
Daily EMA217,800.42HOLD
Reopen gapNo opening gap
7,7807,8007,8207,8407,8607,8807,900close 16:00Wed 9:30close 16:00Thu 9:30close 16:00Fri 9:30close 16:00Mon 9:30close 16:00Tue 9:30close 16:00Prior week high · 7,897.5H1 · EMA21 · ES / MES 7,855.5Yellow: 09:30 open · dashed gray: 16:00 close (ET)

The Read

Neither side gained ground today: the session opened at 7856.25 and closed at 7855.5, a doji on heavier-than-normal volume. That was a real fight, not a nap, boxed between 7834.25 and 7864 and still inside last week's 7760-7897.5 range. The heavyweights leaned positive and price sits above the daily average near 7800.42, but CPI can blow straight through a range this tight. Accept above 7864 and the door opens to 7887; lose 7834.25 and 7815-7800 is the next shelf.

Yesterday's daily candle · Tue, Oct 13
Open7,856.25High7,864Low7,834.25Close7,855.5
doji · range 29.75 pts
Projected range · next session33 pts7,838 – 7,871
⚠ Flat / choppy conditions likely

Index drivers

TickerApprox. weightDay moveNext earningsTop headline
NVDA8.45%+0.97%—3 Absurdly Cheap Stocks to Buy Before the End of 2026
MSFT5.76%+0.43%—Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Holds Up As Meta, AMD Lead Buys; ASML, CPI Inflation Due
AAPL7.3%+0.09%—Judge orders OpenAI to turn over hiring records in Apple trade secrets case
AMZN3.69%−0.37%—Are consumer budgets in for a fright this Halloween season?
META2.42%+2.63%—Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Holds Up As Meta, AMD Lead Buys; ASML, CPI Inflation Due
AVGO2.47%+0.73%—Chips' Sixth Straight Loss Drags Nasdaq Into the Red
GOOGL3%+0.3%Oct 27 · After closeDisney strikes $20-million deal for Character.ai's assets as AI startup files for bankruptcy
TSLA—−0.74%Oct 20 · After closeRivian spinoff Mind Robotics hires ex-Ford EV chief Doug Field
GOOG2.41%+0.16%—Disney strikes $20-million deal for Character.ai's assets as AI startup files for bankruptcy
MU1.88%−3.62%—Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Holds Up As Meta, AMD Lead Buys; ASML, CPI Inflation Due
AMD1.52%+1.9%—Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Holds Up As Meta, AMD Lead Buys; ASML, CPI Inflation Due
BRK.B—+0.58%——

Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Broadcom, AMD, Alphabet and Berkshire Hathaway closed higher, with Meta and AMD leading. Amazon, Tesla and Micron closed lower, and Micron took the heaviest hit of the group. Tesla reports earnings on October 20 after the close and Alphabet on October 27 after the close.

Market data as of Oct 13, 6:33 PM EDT · Weights as of 2026-10-01

Evidence · 9 cited findings

Price action · weekly / daily / H1

  • Weekly price is mildly bearish below the 7872.5 open but remains inside the prior-week 7760-7897.5 range, with neither boundary taken; balance owns the flat direction.
  • The daily candle was a near-perfect doji, opening 7856.25 and closing 7855.5, while holding 55.08 points above the 7800.42 daily EMA21.
  • Late H1 closes recovered above the H1 EMA21, but price remains trapped between 7834.25 support and 7864 resistance; 7887 is exposed above a breakout, while loss of 7834.25 opens 7815-7800.

Metrics

  • The completed daily range was 29.75 points, only 40% of the 74.3-point ADR, consistent with compression but leaving substantial event-driven range capacity.
  • The daily body was only 0.75 point and 1% of ADR while volume ran at 1.306 times its 30-session average, confirming active two-sided trade rather than directional control.
  • The final H1 range was 5.75 points versus an 18.5-point expansion threshold, and 50 bars have passed since the last qualifying expansion.

Sentiment & current events

  • September CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for 08:30 ET on October 14; the official timing is verified, but forecast consensus and reaction thresholds are not official figures: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm
  • Large SPY drivers were mixed but mostly positive: NVDA gained 0.9721%, MSFT 0.425%, AAPL 0.088%, META 2.63%, AVGO 0.7273%, AMD 1.8999% and Berkshire 0.5777%, while AMZN, TSLA and MU declined: https://www.ssga.com/us/en/intermediary/etfs/state-street-spdr-sp-500-etf-trust-spy
  • A reported ship sinking off Bulgaria and unresolved Hormuz negotiations preserve geopolitical tail risk, but no measurable equity risk premium was independently demonstrated: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drone-sinks-ship-off-bulgaria-coast-prime-minister-says-2026-10-13
Sources & evidence dates · 33
  1. BLS confirms September 2026 CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 08:30 ET; September PPI is scheduled for October 15 at 08:30 ET and Import/Export Prices for October 16 at 08:30 ET.2026-02-18
  2. Multiple current previews report expectations near +0.6% m/m and +3.6% y/y for headline CPI and +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y for core CPI. These are forecasts, not official BLS figures; other forecast sources show modestly different consensus estimates.2026-10-13
  3. bls.gov2026-02-18
  4. The Federal Reserve calendar confirms Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman appearances at 05:40 ET and 22:55 ET on October 14, the Beige Book at 14:00 ET on October 14, and Chairman Kevin Warsh's IMF conversation at 23:30 ET on October 15.2025-06-24
  5. Reuters search results corroborate that eleven sailors were reported missing after a drone sank a ship off Bulgaria on October 13, following a separate October 7 sinking incident. The broader assertion that these events are already adding a measurable energy or gold risk premium was not independently demonstrated.2026-10-13
  6. reuters.com2026-10-04
  7. reuters.com2026-10-06
  8. cmegroup.com
  9. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:35:01.000Z
  10. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:25:00.000Z
  11. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:10:35.000Z
  12. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:49:28.000Z
  13. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:00:57.000Z
  14. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:36:44.000Z
  15. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:24:24.000Z
  16. Yahoo2026-10-13T19:50:32.000Z
  17. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:52:32.000Z
  18. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:35:06.000Z
  19. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:12:19.000Z
  20. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:03:10.000Z
  21. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:45:03.000Z
  22. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:03:45.000Z
  23. Yahoo2026-10-13T19:00:11.000Z
  24. Yahoo2026-10-13T19:00:00.000Z
  25. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:34:51.000Z
  26. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:14:00.000Z
  27. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:37:02.000Z
  28. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:33:00.000Z
  29. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:30:27.000Z
  30. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:14:21.000Z
  31. Yahoo2026-10-13T20:57:02.000Z
  32. Yahoo2026-10-13T21:14:26.000Z
  33. Yahoo2026-10-13T19:06:43.000Z
GC / MGCGold / Micro GoldWeekly thesis · STRESSED

The Lines in the Sand

4,205Reclaim it and the bears are offside
4,233.5Last week's high, swept and rejected: the failed breakout
4,169.7Today's low; under it, 4148-4135 is exposed

The Trap

Failed breakouts leave late bulls stuck above the old high, and their exits tend to cap every bounce toward 4205. Record ETF demand makes the dip look like a gift, but the chart hasn't agreed yet.

Last price4,184.2
ADR · 30 sessions92.47 pts
Daily EMA214,246.58REJECT
Reopen gapNo opening gap
4,1004,1204,1404,1604,1804,2004,2204,240close 13:30Wed 8:20close 13:30Thu 8:20close 13:30Fri 8:20close 13:30Mon 8:20close 13:30Tue 8:20close 13:30Prior week high · 4,233.5Prior week low · 4,091.2H1 · EMA21 · GC / MGC 4,184.2Yellow: 08:20 open · dashed gray: 13:30 close (ET)

The Read

Gold bulls ran last week's high at 4233.5, couldn't hold it, and got shoved back under the 4221 weekly open. The hourly chart has stair-stepped lower from 4224.8 to 4169.7, and the late bounce stalled under its average near 4193.5. The tell for the other side is strong: ETF holdings just hit a record while speculative longs shrank, and volume on the drop was light. Reclaim 4205 and the bears are offside; lose 4169.7 and 4148-4135 is exposed.

Yesterday's daily candle · Tue, Oct 13
Open4,195.7High4,224.8Low4,169.7Close4,184.2
bearish · range 55.1 pts
Projected range · next session62 pts4,142 – 4,204
Evidence · 10 cited findings

Price action · weekly / daily / H1

  • Weekly price swept the prior-week high at 4233.5 without accepting above it, then reversed below the 4221 weekly open to close at 4184.2; the failed breakout owns the bearish direction.
  • The daily candle closed bearish at 4184.2, 62.38 points below the 4246.58 daily EMA21 after rejection, and finished in the lower portion of its 4169.7-4224.8 range.
  • H1 structure declined through successive lower highs and lows from 4224.8 to 4169.7; the late bounce stayed below the H1 EMA21 near 4193.5, leaving 4169.7 and 4148-4135 exposed unless 4205 is reclaimed.

Metrics

  • The completed daily range was 55.1 points, 59.6% of the 92.47-point ADR, leaving capacity for continuation.
  • Daily volume was only 0.747 times its 30-session average, limiting confirmation despite the EMA rejection.
  • The last H1 range was 6.6 points against a 23.9-point expansion threshold, with 61 bars since the last qualifying expansion; compression supports a larger CPI-window move but not its direction by itself.

Sentiment & current events

  • World Gold Council data show September ETF inflows of US$10 billion, holdings rising 67 tonnes to a record 4,256 tonnes and record Q3 inflows of US$31 billion; this strategic demand is the strongest contradiction to the bearish price action: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/10
  • The same World Gold Council report says total COMEX net longs fell 13% to 654 tonnes and managed-money net longs fell 84 tonnes to 387 tonnes, supporting weaker speculative momentum: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-etfs-holdings-and-flows/2026/10
  • September CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for 08:30 ET on October 14, creating two-sided dollar-and-yield risk; official timing is verified, but reaction thresholds are not: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm
  • The reported ship sinking off Bulgaria and unresolved Hormuz negotiations preserve safe-haven headline risk, but no measurable gold premium was established: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drone-sinks-ship-off-bulgaria-coast-prime-minister-says-2026-10-13
Sources & evidence dates · 11
  1. BLS confirms September 2026 CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 08:30 ET; September PPI is scheduled for October 15 at 08:30 ET and Import/Export Prices for October 16 at 08:30 ET.2026-02-18
  2. Multiple current previews report expectations near +0.6% m/m and +3.6% y/y for headline CPI and +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y for core CPI. These are forecasts, not official BLS figures; other forecast sources show modestly different consensus estimates.2026-10-13
  3. bls.gov2026-02-18
  4. The Federal Reserve calendar confirms Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman appearances at 05:40 ET and 22:55 ET on October 14, the Beige Book at 14:00 ET on October 14, and Chairman Kevin Warsh's IMF conversation at 23:30 ET on October 15.2025-06-24
  5. World Gold Council confirms September gold-ETF inflows of US$10bn, a 67t increase in holdings to a record 4,256t, and record Q3 inflows of US$31bn. It also reports total COMEX net longs fell 13% to 654t and managed-money net longs fell 84t to 387t as of September 29.2026-10-07
  6. gold.org2026-10-07
  7. Reuters search results corroborate that eleven sailors were reported missing after a drone sank a ship off Bulgaria on October 13, following a separate October 7 sinking incident. The broader assertion that these events are already adding a measurable energy or gold risk premium was not independently demonstrated.2026-10-13
  8. reuters.com2026-10-04
  9. reuters.com2026-10-06
  10. cmegroup.com
  11. riotimesonline.com2026-10-13
CL / MCLWTI Crude Oil / Micro WTI Crude OilWeekly thesis · FULFILLED

The Lines in the Sand

95.1Week's high; a close above opens fresh ground
93.9Bulls' line; an hourly close under means deeper pullback
93.2Last week's ceiling, now the floor the breakout built

The Trap

After a big day, late bulls tend to chase the high near 95.1 just as the move needs a breather, and a routine dip toward 93.90 shakes them out. Bears fading the rally only because it looks stretched have been run over all week.

Last price94.77
ADR · 30 sessions4.13 pts
Daily EMA2191.5HOLD
Reopen gapNo opening gap
8889909192939495close 14:30Wed 9:00close 14:30Thu 9:00close 14:30Fri 9:00close 14:30Mon 9:00close 14:30Tue 9:00close 14:30Prior week high · 93.2H1 · EMA21 · CL / MCL 94.77Yellow: 09:00 open · dashed gray: 14:30 close (ET)

The Read

Crude bulls broke last week's ceiling at 93.2, held above it, and closed at 94.77, just under the 95.1 weekly high. The hourly trend is still climbing above its rising average, and unresolved Hormuz headlines are the fuel. The counter-argument: the day already burned most of its normal range on only average volume, and no verified inventory data backs the move. Hold 94.17-93.90 and a push through 95.1 opens fresh ground; an hourly close under 93.90 means a deeper pullback.

Yesterday's daily candle · Tue, Oct 13
Open93.2High95.1Low91.69Close94.77
bullish · range 3.41 pts
Projected range · next session2.2 pts93.95 – 96.15
Evidence · 10 cited findings

Price action · weekly / daily / H1

  • Weekly price took and accepted above the prior-week high at 93.2, trades 2.94 above the 91.83 weekly open and closed near the 95.1 weekly high; that acceptance owns the bullish direction.
  • The daily candle advanced from 93.2 to 94.77 and closed 3.27 above the 91.5 daily EMA21 after using 82.5% of ADR; control is bullish, although the large used range raises pullback risk.
  • H1 price advanced from 91.69 to 95.1 and remains above its rising EMA21; holding 94.17-93.90 supports continuation through 95.1, while an H1 close below 93.90 signals a deeper retracement.

Metrics

  • The completed daily range was 3.41 points, 82.5% of the 4.13-point ADR, showing strong participation while warning that immediate extension may require consolidation.
  • Daily volume was 0.995 times its 30-session average, indicating the bullish move occurred on typical rather than exceptional participation.
  • The final H1 range was 0.47 against a 0.82 expansion threshold, with seven bars since the last expansion; a close above 95.1 is the defined trigger for the 08:00-11:00 ET window.

Sentiment & current events

  • Unresolved Iran-US negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz preserve substantial supply-gap and headline risk, supporting bullish asymmetry without independently guaranteeing direction: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-says-strait-hormuz-will-not-reopen-until-conditions-are-met-2026-10-04
  • A reported drone sinking of a ship off Bulgaria adds geopolitical concern, but the research did not demonstrate a measurable crude risk premium from the incident: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/drone-sinks-ship-off-bulgaria-coast-prime-minister-says-2026-10-13
  • The official EIA schedule places the next Weekly Petroleum Status Report on October 15 at 12:00 ET, not during this forecast window: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/schedule.php
  • CPI at 08:30 ET can affect the dollar and broad risk appetite, but its directional transmission to crude is conditional: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/10_sched.htm
Sources & evidence dates · 9
  1. BLS confirms September 2026 CPI and Real Earnings are scheduled for October 14, 2026 at 08:30 ET; September PPI is scheduled for October 15 at 08:30 ET and Import/Export Prices for October 16 at 08:30 ET.2026-02-18
  2. Multiple current previews report expectations near +0.6% m/m and +3.6% y/y for headline CPI and +0.2% m/m and +2.5% y/y for core CPI. These are forecasts, not official BLS figures; other forecast sources show modestly different consensus estimates.2026-10-13
  3. bls.gov2026-02-18
  4. The Federal Reserve calendar confirms Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman appearances at 05:40 ET and 22:55 ET on October 14, the Beige Book at 14:00 ET on October 14, and Chairman Kevin Warsh's IMF conversation at 23:30 ET on October 15.2025-06-24
  5. EIA's official holiday schedule resolves the petroleum-report timing conflict: the Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending October 9 is scheduled for Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 12:00 ET, not October 14.
  6. Reuters search results corroborate that eleven sailors were reported missing after a drone sank a ship off Bulgaria on October 13, following a separate October 7 sinking incident. The broader assertion that these events are already adding a measurable energy or gold risk premium was not independently demonstrated.2026-10-13
  7. reuters.com2026-10-04
  8. cmegroup.com
  9. riotimesonline.com2026-10-13

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