GDP: how futures reacted
Latest check: 2026-10-13. Verify figures and dates on the agency's site.
What it is
GDP measures the inflation-adjusted value of goods and services produced in the United States and is estimated by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Advance, second, and third quarterly estimates are released at 08:30 ET; the official schedule is https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full.
Published by U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
When it comes out
- Usual time: 08:30 ET
- How often: quarterly, three estimates
- Next scheduled dates: Thu, Oct 29, 2026; Wed, Nov 25, 2026; Wed, Dec 23, 2026
- Official schedule: www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full
Past releases
| Date | Actual | Prior | Nasdaq (MNQ) | S&P 500 (MES) | Gold (MGC) | Crude (MCL) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | |||
| 2026-09-30 08:30 ET | 2.2 % q/q annualized | 2.5 % q/q annualized | +118.25 +0.39% | +91.75 +0.30% | +76.25 +0.25% | +22.00 +0.28% | +11.75 +0.15% | +8.75 +0.11% | +21.9 +0.52% | +15.1 +0.36% | -0.1 0.00% | -0.08 -0.09% | -0.05 -0.06% | +1.05 +1.16% |
| 2026-08-26 08:30 ET | 1.5 % q/q annualized | 2.1 % q/q annualized | -82.00 -0.28% | -106.25 -0.36% | -84.00 -0.29% | -12.25 -0.16% | -16.50 -0.21% | -17.25 -0.22% | -6.1 -0.13% | -15.3 -0.33% | -18.4 -0.39% | +0.02 +0.02% | +0.44 +0.55% | +0.48 +0.60% |
Moves are in index or price points from the price at the release time, with the percentage underneath. Markets: Nasdaq (MNQ), S&P 500 (MES), Gold (MGC), Crude (MCL). Actual and prior are first-print values in % q/q annualized.
Typical reaction
- Across the 2 releases since 2026-08-26, Nasdaq (MNQ)'s median 30-minute move was 99 points (0.33%). It was up 30 minutes later in 1 of 2.
- Across the 2 releases since 2026-08-26, S&P 500 (MES)'s median 30-minute move was 14.13 points (0.18%). It was up 30 minutes later in 1 of 2.
- Across the 2 releases since 2026-08-26, Gold (MGC)'s median 30-minute move was 15.2 points (0.34%). It was up 30 minutes later in 1 of 2.
- Across the 2 releases since 2026-08-26, Crude (MCL)'s median 30-minute move was 0.25 points (0.31%). It was up 30 minutes later in 1 of 2.
| Market | Releases with data | Median absolute 30-min move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq (MNQ) | 2 | 99 pts (0.33%) | 1 (50%) | 1 (50%) |
| S&P 500 (MES) | 2 | 14.13 pts (0.18%) | 1 (50%) | 1 (50%) |
| Gold (MGC) | 2 | 15.2 pts (0.34%) | 1 (50%) | 1 (50%) |
| Crude (MCL) | 2 | 0.25 pts (0.31%) | 1 (50%) | 1 (50%) |
Computed only from our own one-minute prices, measured from the price at the release time. Small samples describe what happened; they do not describe what will happen.
Sources
- GDP second estimate — second quarter 2026 - checked 2026-10-13
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter-2026 - GDP third estimate — second quarter 2026 - checked 2026-10-13
https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-third-estimate-industries-corporate-profits-state-gdp-and-state-personal-income-2nd - BEA news release schedule - checked 2026-10-13
https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule/full