FOMC rate decision: how futures reacted
Latest check: 2026-10-13. Verify figures and dates on the agency's site.
What it is
The FOMC rate decision sets the target range for the federal funds rate, and this series records the upper bound announced by the Federal Reserve. Decisions occur eight scheduled times per year, usually at 14:00 ET; the official schedule is https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
Published by Federal Reserve.
When it comes out
- Usual time: 14:00 ET
- How often: 8 per year
- Next scheduled dates: Wed, Oct 28, 2026; Wed, Dec 9, 2026
- Official schedule: www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
Past releases
| Date | Actual | Prior | Nasdaq (MNQ) | S&P 500 (MES) | Gold (MGC) | Crude (MCL) | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | 5 min | 30 min | 60 min | |||
| 2026-09-16 14:00 ET | 4 % | 3.75 % | +30.00 +0.10% | -23.25 -0.08% | -246.25 -0.84% | 0.00 0.00% | -5.50 -0.07% | -64.75 -0.84% | -36.3 -0.82% | -38.8 -0.88% | -101.9 -2.31% | 0.00 0.00% | +0.11 +0.11% | +0.34 +0.33% |
Moves are in index or price points from the price at the release time, with the percentage underneath. Markets: Nasdaq (MNQ), S&P 500 (MES), Gold (MGC), Crude (MCL). Actual and prior are first-print values in %.
Typical reaction
- In the one release since 2026-09-16, Nasdaq (MNQ)'s median 30-minute move was 23.25 points (0.08%). It was up 30 minutes later in 0 of 1.
- In the one release since 2026-09-16, S&P 500 (MES)'s median 30-minute move was 5.5 points (0.07%). It was up 30 minutes later in 0 of 1.
- In the one release since 2026-09-16, Gold (MGC)'s median 30-minute move was 38.8 points (0.88%). It was up 30 minutes later in 0 of 1.
- In the one release since 2026-09-16, Crude (MCL)'s median 30-minute move was 0.11 points (0.11%). It was up 30 minutes later in 1 of 1.
| Market | Releases with data | Median absolute 30-min move | Higher | Lower |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq (MNQ) | 1 | 23.25 pts (0.08%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (100%) |
| S&P 500 (MES) | 1 | 5.5 pts (0.07%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (100%) |
| Gold (MGC) | 1 | 38.8 pts (0.88%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (100%) |
| Crude (MCL) | 1 | 0.11 pts (0.11%) | 1 (100%) | 0 (0%) |
Computed only from our own one-minute prices, measured from the price at the release time. Small samples describe what happened; they do not describe what will happen.
Sources
- FOMC statement — September 16, 2026 - checked 2026-10-13
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm - FOMC calendars - checked 2026-10-13
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm